Key takeaways:
- Data suggests that Bitcoin currently trades at a 40% discount.
- Over 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from Coinbase and Binance on April 25.
- Bitcoin’s fractal pattern from Q4 2024 could propel prices above $100,000 in April.
Bitcoin is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted that since the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s energy value—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicated that over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative netflows from Coinbase could point toward institutional buying, or ETF-related purchases reflecting underlying demand.
This development lines up with the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows witnessed this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions went on a $3 billion ‘Bitcoin bender’ over the past few days.
Binance also witnessed exchange outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted that “this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” Although large outflows and positive price action suggest bullish tailwinds, Wedson said they do not automatically mean a continued rally. The analyst said,
“In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China’s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery.”
Can this Bitcoin fractal push BTC above $100K in April?
Bitcoin’s weekly performance marks its highest return in 2025 and its most significant uptick since November 2024. Besides similar returns, the BTC price also reflects identical price action.