What to know:
- Bitcoin's recent breakout has traders optimistic about reaching $100,000, but historical trends suggest caution as May approaches.
- The "Sell in May and go away" adage reflects a seasonal trend of weaker market performance from May through October.
- Historical data indicates that Bitcoin often follows similar seasonal patterns as equities, with potential for volatility and pullbacks in the coming months.
A bitcoin (BTC) breakout earlier this week has traders eyeing the $100,000 level in the coming days, a euphoric trade that could be short-lived as May’s seasonality approaches.
“Historically, the next couple of months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors abiding by the Sell in May and Walk Away adage,” Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
“That being said, markets have significantly underperformed over the last few months, but this year could buck the trend, with Bitcoin hitting $97K and other growth stocks coming back over the last few weeks. This past week's weak GDP numbers coming out of the US indicate some risk, as another report of negative GDP growth next quarter would indicate a recession, but rate cuts could lead to a rebound as well,” Mei added.
The adage “Sell in May and go away” is a long-standing seasonal saying in traditional financial markets.
It suggests that investors should sell their holdings at the beginning of May and return to the market around November, based on the belief that equity markets underperform during the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity, and historical returns data.
The phrase dates back to the early days of London Stock Exchange and was originally “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” referencing a mid-September horse race.
What data shows
Historically, U.S. stock markets have shown weaker performance from May through October than from November through April, leading to the strategy becoming a seasonal rule-of-thumb for some investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows, and retail sentiment. CoinGlass data show the asset’s May performance has been negative or muted recently.
In 2021, BTC dropped 35%, one of its worst months that year. In 2022, May was again negative, with a 15% drop amid Luna’s collapse. In 2023, BTC was flat to mildly positive, reflecting muted volatility.BTC popped up 11% last May and ended May 2019 up 52% — a standout performance from all months following 2018, when crypto markets are generally thought to have matured after that year’s altcoin cycle.